The Russian stock market on Tuesday exceeded 2615 points on the Moscow Exchange index, updating the maximum for the year

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The Russian stock market ended the main trading session with the growth of the majority of blue chips against the backdrop of positive signals from external stock markets and evening oil attempts to grow, anti-Russian sanctions news from the G7 countries acted as a deterrent.

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The Moscow Exchange Index updated its maximum for the year and exceeded 2615 points, the growth leaders were the shares of metallurgists, Magnit (+3.1%) and Sberbank (+2.1%).

As a result of the main session, the Moscow Exchange index rose to 2615.62 points (+0.8%), the RTS index – up to 1010.87 points (+0.6%); prices of the majority of “blue chips” on the Moscow Exchange rose within 3.4%.

The dollar by 18:50 Moscow time was worth 81.42 rubles (+0.02 rubles).

The foreign ministers of the G7 countries agreed to increase economic sanctions to put pressure on Moscow in connection with the situation in Ukraine, follows from the statement of the G7 foreign ministers, adopted following their meeting in Japan. In addition, they agreed to strengthen coordination to prevent sanctions evasion and arms transfers to Russia by third parties.

The shares of NLMK (+3.4%), Magnit (+3.1%), UC Rusal (+2.3%), Sberbank (+2.1% and +2.3% of prefs) went up ), Severstal (+2%), Aeroflot (+1.5%), Gazprom (+1.3%), MMK (+1.2%), Yandex (+1 %), ALROSA (+0.6%), Tatneft (+0.6%), Rosneft (+0.5%), Surgutneftegaz (+0.4%), MTS (+0.4%), Inter RAO (+0.4%), Polymetal (+0.3%), Norilsk Nickel (+0.2%), Polyus PJSC (+0.1% ), RusHydro (+0.1%).

Global demand for steel in 2023 will increase by 2.3% and amount to 1.822 billion tons (1.782 billion tons in 2022), the World Steel Association predicts. In 2024, according to WSA expectations, steel demand will increase by 1.7%, to 1.854 billion tons.

Meanwhile, according to the association’s forecast, steel consumption in Russia will fall this year by 5% (to 39.6 million tons), and in 2024 the association expects a decrease in metal consumption in the Russian Federation by another 7% (to 36.9 million tons). ).

Shares of Lukoil (-0.8%), NOVATEK (-0.7%), OZON receipts (-0.6%), TCS Group (-0.5%), preferred shares of Surgutneftegaz fell in price (-0.4%), securities of AFK Sistema (-0.2%), Moscow Exchange (-0.1%), Gazprom Neft (-0.1%).

Analyst comments

According to Alexander Shepelev, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments, on Tuesday the Russian stock market tested the 2600 point mark on the Moscow Exchange index, there was a local correction in the afternoon, but by the close of trading, the players returned to purchases. The locomotive of the entire upward movement was Sberbank shares, the fate of dividends for which will be decided this Friday (there are payments of 25 rubles per share of each type on the agenda). Retailers did not lag behind in the morning: the X5 Retail group, which showed revenue growth in the quarter, and the papers of Magnit.

The current level of the Moscow Exchange index reached its maximum for the year, which would rather indicate that further growth will require objective reasons, Shepelev believes.

According to Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, statistics on China’s GDP growth of 4.5% in the first quarter gave a positive impetus to stock markets around the world. The IMF believes that in the next five years, it is China that will be the locomotive of global economic growth. Given the reorientation of Russian export flows to Southeast Asia, this is positive news for the country.

Shares of Mechel (+7.4%) became the leaders of growth on the news about the strengthening of demand for energy resources in China, including from the Russian Federation. On Wednesday, the Moscow Exchange index will move in the corridor of 2550-2650 points, Milchakova believes.

Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Research for global research, notes that the Russian market has updated another high of the Moscow Exchange index since April last year, then there was an expected wave of local profit-taking. In general, the strong technical overbought is the limiting factor for the growth of the market.

MMK shares reacted rather sluggishly to operating reports, which can still be called encouraging: in the first quarter, the plant increased steel production by 8.1% qoq, sales – by 2.8% qoq. The company expects to maintain a fairly favorable situation in the domestic market in the second quarter, as well as to intensify demand against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in construction activity, the analyst notes.

Strong statistics on China failed to inspire oil quotes for a steady increase, as now fears of a recession in Europe and North America are coming to the fore. There is also news from Iraq that the country’s federal government is holding regular negotiations with the authorities of the Kurdish autonomy to resume supplies via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which has been idle for three weeks, Kochetkov notes.

Economic conditions are improving in Germany, but business sentiment is not getting any better. The index of current economic conditions in Germany rose to -32.5 points from -46.5 points in March against expectations of -40 points. However, the index of economic sentiment fell to 4.1 points from 13.0 points in March, with expectations of growth to 15.3 points. Nevertheless, in Europe the banking sector was in the lead, which continues to calm down after the March crisis, Kochetkov states.

The statistics from the US turned out to be quite negative. The number of building permits fell in March by 8.8%, and new construction – by 0.8%. In both cases, the data turned out to be worse than forecasts. However, the US market clearly likes the weak statistics, as well as the ongoing stream of corporate reports. Goldman Sachs unexpectedly weakly reported for the first quarter, reporting revenue of $12.22 billion against expectations of $12.79 billion. Bank of America, on the contrary, showed a good increase in the lending business due to higher rates. Johnson & Johnson reported revenue growth of 5.6% in the first quarter, to $ 24.75 billion, against expectations of $ 23.67 billion, the analyst notes.

Analyst FG “Finam” Ksenia Lapshina believes that the uptrend is still maintained in the Russian stock market, the Moscow Exchange index continues to update annual highs, which is replaced by local corrections. In particular, the Moscow Exchange index has grown by 18% over the past two months, and the gap between the index and the 50-day moving average is noticeably increasing – now it is more than 10%, which may cause a technical rollback in the short term, Lapshina believes.

Asian equity indices were mixed on Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi down 0.2%, China’s Shanghai Composite up 0.2%. , the Hong Kong indicator Hang Seng lost 0.6%), Europe rose (FTSE, DAX, CAC 40 indices grow by 0.4-0.5%), but there is a correction in the USA (indices lose 0.1-0.4% led by Dow) against the backdrop of strong statistical data from China and quarterly reports in the US.

The Chinese economy in the I quarter increased by 4.5% in annual terms. The growth rate accelerated significantly compared to 2.9% in October-December last year. Analysts on average expected a 4% increase, according to Trading Economics.

Retail sales in China jumped 10.6% in March from the same month a year earlier, the fastest pace since June 2021 and better than expected growth of 7.4%. Industrial production growth accelerated to 3.9% from 2.4% in January-February, while unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.6%, hitting a seven-month low.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the number of new buildings in the US in March decreased by 0.8% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.42 million in annual terms. According to the revised data, in February the number of new buildings was equal to 1.432 million, and not 1.45 million, as previously announced. Experts predicted a decline in the March figure to 1.4 million from the previously announced February level, according to Trading Economics.

Bank of America in January-March increased revenue by 13%, which was better than analysts’ expectations; net income also beat the forecast. Lockheed Martin increased its first-quarter revenue by 1%, while the military-industrial concern’s revenue and adjusted earnings also came in above consensus.

Johnson & Johnson ended the first quarter with a net loss due to one-off factors, but adjusted earnings were higher than expected. In addition, the world’s largest health products maker raised its full-year financial guidance for 2023.

Net profit of Goldman Sachs bank in the first quarter decreased by 19%, but turned out to be better than expected, but the bank’s revenue did not live up to expectations.

In the oil market on Tuesday evening, prices rose moderately. The cost of June Brent futures by 18:50 Moscow time on Tuesday was $85.15 per barrel (+0.5% and -1.8% on Monday), the May price of WTI was $81.27 per barrel (+0.5% and -2.1% the day before).

In the “second tier” on the Moscow Exchange, shares of PJSC Vladimir Chemical Plant (+14.9%), Rosgosstrakh (+11.7%), PJSC Khimprom (Novocheboksarsk) shares (+10.2%) ), shares of VEON (+8.2%), Mechel (+7.4% and +5.1% of preferred shares), PJSC International Trade Center (+6.3%), PJSC Kaluga Sales company” (+5.8%), HeadHunter receipts (+5%), Cian (+4.6%), shares of PJSC Yuzhuralnickel (+4.5%), GDR X5 Retail (+4.5%) .

PJSC “TGC-14” (+1.2%) in January-March 2023 received 645.1 million rubles of net profit under RAS, which is 27.4% more than in the same period in 2022, according to the company’s financial statements . Revenue grew by 20.4% to 5.267 billion rubles, and cost – by 10.7% to 4.443 billion rubles.

Shares of IC Russ-Invest (-4.3%), PJSC Institute of Human Stem Cells (-3.9%), preferred shares of MGTS (-3.6%), shares of PJSC Tattelecom fell in price (-2.4%).

O’Key receipts sank (-1.2%, to 32.37 rubles) after a jump in early trading by 4.2% (to 34.15 rubles) amid the release of the company’s annual report.

According to the results of 2022, the O’Key group of companies increased its net profit under IFRS by 16.2% – up to 242 million rubles, the Group of Companies said in a statement. EBITDA increased by 9.8% to 17.02 billion rubles, the profitability of the indicator was 8.4% against 8.3% in 2021. The gross profit of the O’Key group grew by 11.1% last year, to 46.81 billion rubles, the gross margin was 23.2% against 22.5% in 2021. Total revenue increased by 8.1% to RUB 202.17 billion.

The total volume of trading in shares based on the Moscow Exchange index for the day amounted to 55.3 billion rubles (of which 19.61 billion rubles fell on ordinary shares of Sberbank, 6.98 billion rubles on the securities of Gazprom and 3.52 billion rubles on the shares of Lukoil “).

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