Repeat election in Berlin: CDU far ahead, red-red-green with a narrow majority

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In the repeat elections in Berlin, the SPD of the Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey was clearly punished and only gets just under 18 percent. The winner of the election is the CDU with an expected 27 percent. Nevertheless, everything looks as if the red-red-green coalition will continue to form the city-state’s next government.

The repeat election in Berlin is expected to end on Sunday without any major surprises. According to forecasts by the opinion research institutes, which are based on post-election surveys, the CDU is well ahead of the Greens, the SPD and the Left.

The Union is in the forecasts published at 6 p.m ARD at 27.5 percent. The Greens get 18.5 percent, putting them on par with the Governing Mayor’s SPD, who can count on 18.5 percent of the vote. The left, which has been part of the governing red-red-green coalition in the federal capital for two legislatures, gets 12.5 percent.

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The Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved nine percent of the vote in the forecasts. With 4.5 percent, the FDP will probably miss the re-entry into the House of Representatives.

At 63.5 percent, voter turnout is currently lower than in the previous elections. Two years ago, 75 percent went to the polls.

The first extrapolation by infratest dimap at 6.26 p.m. largely confirmed the forecast from 6 p.m. According to her, the CDU receives 27.5 percent, the SPD and the Greens are still tied at 18.4 percent each, the left gets 12.6 percent of the votes, the AfD – 9.1 percent, the FDP 4.5 percent , other parties together 9.5 percent. The provisional official final result is expected around 10 p.m.

In the second extrapolation at 6:53 p.m., the Greens, with 18.5 percent, easily overtake the SPD, which comes to 18.3 percent. In the third ARD– Extrapolation at 7.12 p.m., the CDU has 27.8 percent of the votes, the Greens are still ahead of the SPD with 18.8 percent, which has 18.7 percent. The left comes to 12.1 percent, the AfD to 9.0 percent.

A continuation of the incumbent coalition of SPD, Greens and Left seems likely, but it is unclear whether it will continue to be led by the SPD with Franziska Giffey or under a Green Governing Mayor. However, the CDU has already announced that it will campaign for a “coalition for Berlin” itself.

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The irregularities in the elections to the Berlin House of Representatives in September 2021 made international headlines. Many hardly understandable problems had caused trouble in the capital on election day. At that time, the elections for the Berlin House of Representatives and the twelve district councils took place parallel to the federal elections. In numerous polling stations, voters were confronted with unacceptable queues, polling stations being relocated at short notice and missing or even incorrect ballot papers. In some cases voting was even possible after 6 p.m.

Because of this unprecedented series of breakdowns, the election was declared invalid by the Berlin State Constitutional Court in November 2022 and therefore had to be repeated today. However, this only affects the elections to the House of Representatives and the district councils. A possible repeat of the Bundestag elections in Berlin is still pending.

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