Ritsumeikan University political science professor Masato Kamikubo, in an interview with the media, said Japan would maintain its political alignment with the United States. No matter who becomes the Prime Minister.
Kamikubo believes that current Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will try to maintain power post-elections by forming a coalition with the People’s Democratic Party. And Japan’s Renewal Party (“Nippon Ishin no Kai”) to secure a majority in parliament.
However, Kamikubo feels that Ishiba’s influence will likely decline, especially in foreign affairs, and that the policies of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will persist.
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When asked if Japan’s policies might shift should Donald Trump win the US election. Professor Kamikubo suggested that Japan would likely adapt if Trump’s administration changed US policy direction.
According to him, any major shifts under Trump would focus on responses to the Ukraine conflict and Israel-related issues. However, Kamikubo does not foresee significant changes in US-Japan relations even with a Trump administration.
Professor Kamikubo also noted Japan’s recent decision to increase defense spending under Kishida’s administration. He stated that Japan has aimed to take on more responsibility for Asia’s security, aligning with Trump’s idea of reducing America’s military burden abroad. He added that Japan’s focus would remain on US-Japan relations. And following the US lead, regardless of the prime minister in office.
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According to an Asahi poll of 360,000 voters, Japan’s ruling coalition might fall short of the 233 seats needed to pass legislation easily in parliament. And the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose up to 50 seats from its current 247. The Constitutional Democratic Party could boost its lower house presence significantly, potentially going from 98 seats to 140.
