The oil market is expected to reduce supply. As a result, manufacturers will not be able to meet the growing demand. Shortage expected. This follows from the message of the International Economic Agency (IEA). According to the organization, oil consumption in 2023 will break a record.
In the fourth quarter, market participants expect oil prices to rise to $100 per barrel. There are many prerequisites for this. In particular, the stocks of raw materials in the world are declining, and the money supply is stabilizing. This forecast was made by analysts at Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks.
In such a situation, motorists have questions: how will the prices for gasoline and diesel change and how much will fuel cost at gas stations in early spring?
– The IEA regularly publishes information about the deficit in the oil market, OPEC +, on the contrary, expects a long-term (almost until the end of this year) surplus to remain. On the one hand, in oil-producing countries, production stagnates, volumes do not grow. This is a consequence of the general decline in oil reserves, the complication of its production, as well as the result of the fall in investment in the industry in recent years (due to the policy of zero emissions). On the other hand, against the backdrop of forecasts of a global recession, it may well happen that there will not be a strong deficit, the volumes produced will be enough to compensate for falling demand. Which forecast will come true, time will tell, but you should not expect a sharp increase in quotes or something like that. So far, there are no factors for this, only expectations that may well not come true – noted the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artyom Deev.
As for Russian gasoline and diesel, the analyst drew attention to the fact that it is not oil quotes that are of primary importance for retail prices, but the fiscal policy of the state and the volume of fuel production within the country. In one liter of gasoline, almost 70% are taxes and excises. When the tax burden changes, the cost of fuel may also change.
In particular, since January 2023, the mineral extraction tax for oil workers has been significantly increased, which cannot but affect the price of gasoline in the country. In addition, fuel is already becoming more expensive in wholesale: the expectation of consumption growth is affecting it, since the agricultural season is coming, as well as the period of planned shutdowns of Russian refineries in May.
According to Artyom Deev’s forecasts, due to these factors, fuel in the country will rise in price in the near future until the summer. However, the rise in prices will remain within the framework of inflation (while it is less than 12% per year).
— I believe that gasoline prices will remain stable in the near future, since it is very important for the economy, retail, and all industries. In addition, the government has a successfully operating mechanism for price regulation, which has already shown its effectiveness. The most important thing here is that the authorities have a well-functioning mechanism for resolving this issue, — noted the first vice-president of “Opora Rossii” Pavel Sigal.
The long-term oil shortage is caused by a sharp drop in investment in drilling and exploration, which will not allow a strong increase in production. Russia also reduces production by 0.5 million barrels per day in March, which is also significant for the market. That is, there is an excess supply. At the same time, everything looks good with demand: here are the removal of covid restrictions and the resumption of flights from China (it can add 0.5-1 million bpd to demand). Dmitry Skryabin, portfolio manager of Alfa Capital Management Company, drew attention to these points.
– And in general, logistics has become more expensive, less efficient and transparent, which also adds to the price of oil. Scenarios may be different, but I do not think that, for example, in the near future the price may rise to $120-140 per barrel. OPEC+ is closely monitoring the market and should not allow sharp shifts in either direction, — added by Dmitry Skryabin.
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