The Polish PGNiG denied the publication in the Polish media that the Baltic Gas Pipeline could not be filled with gas. However, it confirmed the statements of the previous management of the state-owned company that the gas pipeline would not be filled even by a third. According to EADaily’s calculations, in March the country could find itself with empty storage facilities and a shortage of fuel if next winter is colder than the previous one.
PGNiG denied the publication in the publication Onet “Empty Baltic pipe. There will be no gas from Scandinavia in winter.” As EADaily reported, the author wrote that the gas pipeline was presented as an alternative to gas supplies from Russia, but the project was only half completed, which means that the Poles will not receive blue fuel from Scandinavia in the winter of 2022-2023.
The Polish state-owned company did not agree with this statement.
“The gas pipeline will be filled with gas from PGNiG’s own production on the Norwegian continental shelf and raw materials purchased on the basis of contracts signed by PGNiG with companies operating in Norway,” – the message says. At the same time, the Polish state-owned company said that negotiations were ongoing and could only name the volume of fuel produced in Norway this year at 3 billion cubic meters per year.
Obviously, the assumption of the former head of PGNiG Peter Wozniak that there are no additional agreements or they are insignificant may be true. Earlier, the company announced a contract for 1 billion cubic meters with the Danish Orsted. However, the launch of the largest Tyra field in Denmark was postponed until the end of next year.
Thus, the Polish state-owned company can only rely on its own production in Norway, and this is very risky for Poland. Quite possibly, Minister of Climate and Environment Anna Moscow It is no coincidence that Poland declares with enviable persistence that Poland will manage its own gas, while the European Union calls for solidarity this winter and sharing fuel with its neighbors.
“Infrastructure, gas pipelines and purchased gas are the property of our state, and only we can decide how we use it, for whose needs and how we make it available. No one will arrest our gas. I want to emphasize that the European Commission cannot force us to do anything. Without freedom there is no solidarity, and it ends where coercion begins.” the minister said a few days ago.
Estimated EADaily , the Polish government has a reason for such behavior. So, if in the last heating season (October to March), direct and reverse supplies of Russian gas, according to ENTSOG, averaged more than 35 million cubic meters per day. That import through the “Baltic gas pipeline” will hardly exceed 8 million cubic meters per day.
Theoretically, Poland could try to buy Norwegian gas on the market, but the Norwegian Oil Ministry said that fuel exports would remain at the same level this winter. At the same time, Western Europe will receive less of it, since PGNiG volumes will now go directly to Poland, and not be sold on the stock exchange.
This summer, LNG deliveries to the Polish terminal in Swinoujscie increased to 20 million cubic meters per day compared to the previous heating season. This is an additional 8.3 million cubic meters per day.
Since Germany is unlikely to be able to export gas this winter with the current supplies via Nord Stream, Poland can still hope for an LNG terminal in Klaipeda and gas storage facilities. This summer, the country is importing through Lithuania about two million cubic meters per day. This is not all regasified LNG, but Warsaw is unlikely to refuse to sell some of the liquefied gas in the winter to the Baltics and Finland, which could be in an even worse situation.
In such a situation, Poland will have to rely on storage facilities. In order to fully compensate for the supply of Russian gas, UGS facilities should produce an average daily of 17 million cubic meters. And this is 3.1 billion cubic meters of gas or 90% of the reserves.
Theoretically, Poland can count on the passage of the heating season, left with empty storage facilities. But under several conditions that pose significant risks. First, the winter must be as mild as the last. Secondly, Polish state-owned companies are obliged to accumulate sufficient reserves of thermal coal, which are currently in short supply, and to keep coal generation at a high level. In addition, gas solidarity with both the Baltics and Germany may still be required from Poland. Previously, thanks to this very concept, Warsaw managed to win court cases to limit the capacity of the continuation of the Nord Stream in Germany.