United States is unable to predict how Iran and Hezbollah will react to killing of Nasrallah

Biden administration is struggling to forecast how Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah movement will respond to the assassination of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, according to Washington Post, citing high-ranking sources within administration.

“Senior officials in Biden administration… stated that they are still assessing situation in Lebanon and their next steps, warning that it is difficult to predict what might happen after the death of Hezbollah leader,” newspaper writes.

According to sources, US is preparing for various response scenarios, including potential attacks by Hezbollah or other pro-Iranian groups, such as Yemen’s Houthis, as well as possible Iranian attacks on American soldiers in the region or Israel.

At same time newspaper notes that American officials are dissuading Israel from conducting a ground operation in Lebanon. Both Biden administration and Israeli government are concerned that Israeli forces might become overstretched as a result of such an operation.

Hezbollah has confirmed death of its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike on a southern suburb of Beirut.

Since last week Israeli Air Force has been carrying out massive strikes on Hezbollah targets in various regions of Lebanon. Several pinpoint airstrikes have also been carried out on Beirut, resulting in elimination of high-ranking Hezbollah commanders. To date, Israeli army has reported hitting several thousand Hezbollah targets. Observers note that Israel has not attacked Hezbollah with such intensity since 2006 Second Lebanon War.

More than 90,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in southern Lebanon due to the escalation of the conflict with Israel, according to a UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs report.

Hezbollah is responding with rocket attacks, mainly targeting northern Israel, but the range of the rocket attacks has significantly increased in recent days. Dozens of barrages are being launched daily against Israeli settlements, resulting in casualties. There have been instances of rockets being fired at residential areas, and one rocket was launched at Tel Aviv area, which was intercepted by air defense systems.

Tensions are escalating amid statements by Israeli military officials about preparing for a ground operation in Lebanon.

Following 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1701, which called for supporting Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, simultaneous withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and deployment of Lebanese government and UN forces in the area.

According to this resolution, presence of any armed groups, except for the Lebanese army and UN forces, is prohibited south of Litani River. However, over the past 18 years, Hezbollah has rebuilt its infrastructure in southern Lebanon and has been daily shelling northern Israel for past 11 months.

Situation on Israeli-Lebanese border has escalated since Israel began its military operations in Gaza Strip in October 2023.