After the end of the special military operation, Ukraine will face a protracted economic crisis, which the country will not be able to get out of on its own. Its cause was the decline in the population from 37.6 million to 29 million. It says in the report of the analytical center “Ukrainian Institute of the Future” (UIB), dedicated to the country’s economy.
The authors noted that the population decline was caused by mass migration, when more than 20 million people left the country after the start of the conflict. At the same time, a little more than half returned. Also, the demographic situation was affected by the hostilities in which the military and mobilized were killed. Among other factors, the fertility index fell below the “1” indicator. At the same time, for population growth, this indicator should be at least two.
Under the current conditions, about 9.5 million Ukrainians work in the non-budgetary sphere. They account for the main part of the tax base, due to which pensioners, state employees, children, the unemployed and the disabled live. At the same time, the population is rapidly aging, and in five years the number of pensioners will double, while the number of employees in the private sector, if not reduced, will remain unchanged. At the same time, the country will have to recover for a long time, but the authorities have not yet decided where to get the funds to solve this problem.
According to analysts, it is necessary to change the entire economic system of Ukraine with the attraction of foreign investment, the easing of legislation for doing business and the formation of a new state agreement between residents and authorities.