The second round of elections in Turkey: date, poll data, predictions for the victory of candidates

ORC: Erdogan’s rival can beat him in elections by a narrow margin

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On May 28, the second round of presidential elections will start in Turkey. Opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu could win by a narrow margin over incumbent leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, according to an ORC poll.

ORC polling data and bot attack

In the first round of elections, Erdogan secured the support of 49.52% of the vote, Kılıçdaroğlu had a result of 44.88%. In the second round, a simple majority of votes is required to win.

According to the ORC survey, which took place from May 24 to 25, 46.7% of respondents are ready to support Erdogan, and 48.1% want to vote for Kılıçdaroglu. About 5.2% of the respondents were undecided about their choice.

The survey involved 3,950 people in 28 out of 81 provinces in Turkey, the error was 2.4%, said RIA News”.

The staff of the center analyzed the data and came to the conclusion that 50.8% would support Kılıçdaroğlu during the redistribution of votes undecided, and 49.2% for the incumbent president.

The ORC noted that after the survey data were published, the center’s website began to be attacked by bots.

Before the first round of elections, the ORC forecast did not come true. In the final poll before the start of voting for the leader of the country, 51.7% of those polled supported Kılıçdaroglu, and Erdoğan – 44.2%.

Türkiye will take the path of sanctions?

Elections in Turkey are of strategic importance for the people of the country. In the event that residents support Erdogan, the country will not impose sanctions against Russia, which have hit the West painfully. And if they choose Kylychdaroglu, the republic will follow the path of restrictions, political scientist Marat Bashirov noted earlier.

Erdogan himself stated that the republic’s policy towards Russia would remain unchanged after the election of the head of state.

“We do not intend to change it (policy – ed.) in relation to Russia, the United States, China and the West, with which we are in touch. We will continue in the same spirit,” he stressed.

Kılıçdaroglu has a different position regarding sanctions. And his pre-election promises in this regard cause alarm in the country’s Foreign Ministry. The head of the department, Mevlut Cavusoglu, pointed out that against the background of the politician’s statements about restrictions, the traditional flow of Russian tourists to the country immediately began to fall.

“They went to Dubai, Thailand and Egypt. All because of the statements of Kılıçdaroglu. Who will cover the losses in the tourism sector? Forget about the EU, forget about America, and even more so about NATO,” Cavusoglu complained.

In addition to promises to impose sanctions, Kılıçdaroğlu made accusations against Russia. He stated that the country allegedly interfered in the election campaign. The Kremlin rejected these claims.

But the opposition politician did not stop there and on May 24 accused Erdogan of showing a fake video. To prove his case, he sued. The amount of the claim amounted to one million lire (about 50 thousand dollars).


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