The Wings have a 7-2-2 record at home and will face a Seattle team that has a 3-7-1 record on the road.
Are those records genuinely indicative of Seattle’s prospects tomorrow night, or are they more likely just early-season “noise” susceptible to the NHL’s randomness?
Is Seattle on the Upswing?
The Kraken has finally broken through with some better results, and at an unexpected moment, with victories over three of the league’s top four teams, with the lone setback coming in Tampa Bay.
All four victories came in regulation, resulting in a +7 goal difference, thanks to a 1.6 GAA and 3.6 goals per game across the five games.
Red Wings vs. Kraken Odds
|Red Wings Odds||-130|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
This is a group that I thought would do better than they have so far this season, and an 8-13-1 record is clearly an underachievement.
The Kraken has scored successfully so far, ranking 14th in the league with 2.95 goals per game, and I expect them to remain in the high middle going forward.
The biggest concern has been goaltenders Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger, who were supposed to provide the Kraken with a formidable 1-2 punch but have combined to allow 15.5 goals more than predicted.
However, it’s realistic to expect both goaltenders to improve in the coming months, making the Kraken a far more dangerous team than their 8-13-1 record suggests.
Grubauer appears to have rediscovered his game recently, earning a.935 save % in three games against tough competition in Washington, Carolina, and Tampa Bay.
Jordan Eberle left Monday night’s game against Buffalo with an injury and is categorized as day-to-day.
The Wings are still a feisty bunch.
After some very difficult years as the Wings bench boss, Jeff Blashill is quietly one of the league’s longest-tenured coaches, and he is now experiencing a little more success in his seventh season.
At the halfway point of the season, the Red Wings have a 10-9-3 record, with some solid underlying metrics no matter how you split the season, including a 51.31 percent projected goals rate overall.
General manager Steve Yzerman has done a good job of retooling the young Red Wings, and offseason additions like Alex Nedeljkovic and Pius Suter have both contributed to the team’s success so far this season.
With their outstanding play so far this season, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider have remained in the Calder conversation. Both were far from lock-in picks at the time of drafting, and Seider, who was selected sixth overall, appears to be a stroke of genius.
The Red Wings, as you might expect from a team with a season Over/Under of 78.5 points, have some prominent roster “plugs,” and I’m still not convinced that too great outcomes can be sustained from this group, even if the season offers a lot of hope for Wings supporters and the statistics are sound.
With Alex Nedeljkovic classified as probable for Tuesday, Thomas Greiss should start, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Blashill decided to rest Nedeljkovic and try to secure an easier win at home against the Kraken.
Greiss has a.901 save percentage and a +0.6 GSAx rating so far this season.
Red Wings vs. Kraken
Similar to the game against Buffalo, the Kraken should have a favorable matchup advantage if they can keep their cool against the Wings’ top line of Bertuzzi, Larkin, and Raymond. I also believe the Kraken have more roster depth from top to bottom, and if the goaltending stabilizes, they will be a team to keep an eye on all season.
Expect the Kraken to come in with a lot of enthusiasm and make things difficult for a Red Wings squad that will face a tough game in Boston on Tuesday night. Although I have praised Detroit’s play thus far, I believe they can carry more of the play here as an underdog, and this is more of a remark on the spot and my perception of the Kraken’s turnaround.
Furthermore, following further study, Detroit’s home record has come primarily against inferior clubs or lineups with extremely depleted lineups, so I am not terribly concerned that they are a full juggernaut at home as their 7-2-2 record suggests.
For this game, the Kraken opened at +110, and I believe that number has a lot of potentials, and I would take advantage of it fast, as it may shorten as we approach closer to puck drop.
Seattle Kraken -105 or better is my pick.