Kamala Harris continues to outpace her opponent in polls

With less than a month and a half until the presidential election, it’s unclear who the favorite is. Polls show an increase in Kamala Harris‘s popularity, but Donald Trump has significantly adjusted his tactics towards the end of the campaign and is also looking good. The nuances of the changing electoral process across the ocean were analyzed by OopsTop.

“I hope we succeed” Trump stated that if he loses in November, he will not run in 2028. Although he could.

He has completed one term out of a possible two, and there are no age restrictions (the former president is already 78). However, according to him, it would be futile.

Of course, he believes in success this year: “I hope we succeed.” Recently, Trump mentioned that after four years, Americans “won’t even have to vote.” This mysterious statement did not receive further development.

The Republican candidate has declined to continue debating Harris, explaining that he considers himself the winner of the verbal duel that took place on September 10 and sees no point in proving anything further. However, sociological data suggest otherwise. Even the pro-Republican channel Fox News awarded victory in the debate to Harris by a margin of 26 percent.

Trump also argues that debates do not matter now since early voting is already underway in Virginia, Minnesota, and South Dakota. But this is only a small part of the country; the main competition will traditionally unfold at the last moment in the so-called swing states. And there, Republicans face serious issues.

Historic Leap The alleged (the investigation is still ongoing) assassination attempt on the former president on September 15 certainly added points to him.

After a bullet grazed Trump’s cheek at a rally on July 14, many believed that victory was already in his pocket. But Democrats replaced Biden with Harris, and she has shown herself to be quite worthy. The second assassination attempt had a very brief effect. Harris is back in the lead. According to a recent poll conducted by The Hill, her rating is 55%. On a national level, it stands at 52%. A four percent difference is significant. Previously, the gap had not exceeded the statistical error of two percent.

It’s also important that Harris is solidifying her position in the “swing states” (this year – Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina). However, there the margin is exactly those two percent – 51 to 49. Harris has set a sort of record: a 16% increase in popularity over two months (NBC News data). The media calls this a historic event. Only George W. Bush had a 30% spike after the attacks on September 11, 2001.

Further Risks Overall, no one dares to predict the outcome. “A gap this small is extremely rare,” notes CNN. Usually, a favorite is known in the fall, although that doesn’t guarantee anything. Statistician Nate Silver, one of the founders of the election-focused resource FiveThirtyEight, believes that a three percent lead is needed excluding the margin of error. So far, that is not present. It’s possible that both Trump and Harris could fall short by one electoral vote (there are a total of 538) of the necessary 270, suggests political analyst Harry Enten. In this case, the House of Representatives (the lower chamber of Congress), where Republicans hold the majority, would have to intervene.