Tensions between India and Pakistan have surged to critical levels in 2025, raising global concerns about a potential full-scale war between these nuclear-armed neighbors.

The conflict, centered around the disputed Kashmir region, has intensified with both nations trading accusations and engaging in heavy cross-border attacks. Experts warn that failure to de-escalate could lead to catastrophic consequences, impacting millions and destabilizing South Asia.

The current crisis traces back to a deadly attack on April 22, 2025, in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, where 26 tourists, mostly Hindu, were killed. India accused Pakistan of supporting the militants responsible, a claim Pakistan denies. In response, India launched “Operation Sindoor” on May 7, striking alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan condemned the strikes as an “act of war,” reporting 26 civilian deaths, including children.

Since then, both sides have escalated military actions. India reported heavy drone incursions and shelling in northern regions, with 13 deaths in Poonch, Kashmir, on May 7. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets and targeted Indian air bases, though India has not confirmed these losses. The Line of Control (LoC), dividing Kashmir, has become a flashpoint, with intense artillery fire and airstrikes disrupting civilian life.

The conflict has upended daily life. Schools in Pakistan’s Punjab and India’s Jammu and Kashmir have closed, and 24 northern Indian airports have suspended civilian flights. Blackouts and air raid sirens have swept across border regions, with residents stockpiling food and seeking shelter. In Muzaffarabad, Pakistan-administered Kashmir, power outages followed Indian strikes, while Amritsar, India, faced explosions for the first time in this conflict.

The economic toll looms large. India, heavily reliant on agriculture and textiles, faces risks to its export markets. Pakistan, grappling with political instability and economic challenges, could see further strain. Analysts predict trade disruptions could ripple globally, affecting supply chains and commodity prices.

Nationalist sentiments run high. Pakistani citizens have expressed readiness to defend their nation, while Indians vow to protect their homeland. Social media posts reflect this fervor, with some Pakistanis calling Kashmir their “jugular vein” and Indians rallying behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hardline stance. However, this patriotism fuels animosity, complicating diplomatic efforts.

The conflict’s scale is unprecedented. A May 7 dogfight involving 125 fighter jets marked one of the largest aerial battles in recent history. Pakistan’s use of Chinese-made J-10 aircraft and India’s deployment of advanced drones highlight the sophistication of both arsenals, drawing global military attention. Experts warn that the nuclear capabilities of both nations—India with an estimated 160 warheads and Pakistan with 165—pose a “clear and present” threat of catastrophic escalation.

The international community has urged restraint. U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated the conflict is “none of our business,” emphasizing de-escalation over intervention, aligning with President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called for direct dialogue, while the G7, EU, and UN have echoed pleas for peace. Iran offered mediation, citing its ties with both nations, but no breakthroughs have emerged.

China, a close ally of Pakistan and a rival of India, faces a diplomatic balancing act. Japan and the UN have warned of the global consequences of a wider conflict, urging both sides to stabilize through talks. Despite these efforts, Pakistan’s “Operation Bunyanun Marsoos” and India’s continued strikes signal ongoing aggression.

Analysts stress the need for compromise. Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group noted the conflict’s severity, while South Asia expert Michael Kugelman predicted Pakistan’s retaliation would be significant. Both nations risk economic devastation, with India’s $3.9 trillion economy and Pakistan’s $340 billion economy vulnerable to prolonged conflict. A war could mirror Gaza’s devastation, with millions facing displacement and death.

De-escalation hinges on dialogue, but mutual distrust and domestic pressures complicate negotiations. India’s claim of targeting “terrorist infrastructure” and Pakistan’s denial of hosting such groups have created a stalemate. Experts urge third-party mediation and a return to the 2021 ceasefire, which held until recently. Without swift action, the conflict risks spiraling into a humanitarian and economic disaster.

Read more: India-Pakistan Border Tensions Escalate: Drone and Missile Attacks Thwarted Amid Blackouts

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