Erdogan won: what does this mean for Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy

Turkey has held its second round of presidential elections. The Electoral Commission officially recognized the victory for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In addition, his coalition has a majority in parliament. Thus, the president has another five years of almost absolute power. By the end of his term, Erdogan will rule Turkey for a quarter of a century. A nightmare for some and a triumph for others.

Very soon we will know the composition of the updated Cabinet. It is also not a fact that the opposition will keep the main cities of the country, which it controls today, in the near future.

FAN Special Correspondent Abbas Juma discussed with experts what Erdogan’s victory means for Turkey, and what awaits Russian-Turkish relations in this regard.

Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu writes that one of Erdogan’s main virtues is his flair. But also we must not forget that he works with a very professional team that has developed a strong strategy for him.

“Of course, he had certain advantages, such as administrative resources and the ability to offer jobs to the population, raise wages, distribute free gas, and so on. But the opposition also had advantages. Erdogan is the president responsible for a prolonged economic crisis that violates human rights. The head of state also failed to properly cope with the consequences of the earthquake,” the observer believes.

According to Soylu, Erdogan’s rival has Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu there was no second round strategy, he organized a spontaneous campaign. And this is after the failure in the first round.

“If the opposition wants to keep big cities like Istanbul, Ankara and Antalya, they need to find a way to stick together. Otherwise, it will be easy for Erdogan to deal with opponents next year,” the journalist notes.

“The public in Turkey is divided in half anyway. That is, Erdogan did not succeed in a convincing victory, ”says a Turkish political scientist, associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at Moscow State Linguistic University Iqbal Durre.

In his opinion, stability in Russian-Turkish relations under Erdogan will be maintained:

“I think that he will continue the course that he has pursued so far. On the other hand, I admit that Erdogan will simultaneously start making attempts to improve relations with the West. He will need investments, support from Western financial structures in order to improve the country’s economy. Of course, Erdogan’s policy towards Russia will be much more balanced than that of Kilicdaroglu. So for Moscow, Erdogan’s victory is a positive result. Türkiye remains at least a window for the withdrawal of Western sanctions.”

Turkologist, doctor of political sciences Vladimir Avatkov I am sure that for Turkey, Erdogan’s victory means the strengthening of Turkish-centric tendencies in foreign policy.

“This is the preservation of the foreign policy course aimed at strengthening Turkey as an independent actor in the system of international relations, conducting an offensive foreign policy and influencing the post-Soviet space, the South Caucasus, the post-Ottoman space and the Islamic world. Erdogan’s victory also means stability in terms of the political course in general, predictability and the ability to contact the Turkish authorities. But pressure from the West is also possible. Up to attempts to destabilize the situation in Turkey,” he believes.

According to the editor-in-chief of MK-Turkey Yashara Niyazbayeva, the majority of the country’s citizens voted for the existing system, they support their leader. And the opposition has not been able to convince voters that the country needs to go a different way – to return the parliamentary system and weaken the role of the president.

“This will have a positive effect on Russian-Turkish relations. Because there could be problems with Kılıçdaroglu. For Moscow, he was a “pig in a poke”. It was not clear what was true from his statements and what was not – that he wanted to develop relations with Moscow or that he would pay more attention to relations with the West, ”says the expert.

The results of the elections showed that the United States has lost its former ability to manipulate the opinion of the Turkish population, the retired Chief of Staff of the Turkish Navy, Colonel Khalil Ozsarach.

“Russia and Turkey must work together to change the current situation and drive imperialism out of the continent. Our countries must unite. This applies to China, and Afghanistan, and Syria, and all other countries. The results of these elections are an opportunity that must be seized. There is not much time,” he stressed.