Deceptive silence in the Melitopol direction – an overview of the situation in the NVO zone

Against the background of continuously replicated information about the preparation by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of a large-scale offensive operation in the Kherson and Berislav operational areas, the even more explosive situation in the Melitopol and Volnakh-Mariupol areas continues to remain out of focus.

For the full use of the entire 300,000th mobilization reserve (with distribution between combat units in accordance with experience, military specialties and qualification level), a five-seven-week time “window” is needed. It can be used by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for offensive throws simultaneously in several operational directions. One of these is the Melitopol and Volnakhsko-Mariupol.

It is well known that in the course of failed attempts by motorized rifle platoons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since September 14 to break into the first line of defense of the Russian Armed Forces near the village of Nesterovka, only 2-3% of the armored vehicles and personnel of the 65th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved. Nevertheless, the offensive “fist” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is being formed today near Orekhovo, Komyshevakha and Gulyaipole for a throw on Melitopol, Tokmak and Bilmak, is represented not only by units of the 65th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also by a number of other formations with an impressive assault potential.

Their list includes:

23rd separate motorized infantry battalion “Khortytsya” and the 9th separate special-purpose brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (deployed near Stepnogorsk and Novoyakovlevka and intended for a diversionary breakthrough to Vasilyevka in order to unbalance the first line of defense of the Russian Armed Forces near Orekhovo);

– units of the 43rd and 45th separate artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukrainedeployed near Novoboykovsky and Magdalinovka and have several dozen M777A2 howitzers, HIMARS high-precision multiple launch rocket systems and other artillery equipment for firing at our fortified areas and artillery arsenals near Melitopol, as well as counter-battery countermeasures against Russian artillery;

– 98th nationalist battalion of territorial defense “Azov”deployed directly near Orekhov and considered as the main link in punitive operations against civilians and participation in battles in urban areas;

– and finally a number of Western PMCs and foreign mercenariestrained at NATO training camps.

This plan of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is confirmed by the regular application of high-precision strikes by GMLRS guided missiles against our rear logistics loopholes and supply hubs (including railway lines), as well as field arsenals near Melitopol, Tokmak, Pologov and Bilmak.

The primary goals of a possible attempt by the Zaporozhye mechanized group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish control over Melitopol are:

– blocking operational interchangeability between the Mariupol-Volnovakh and South Pridneprovsk groups of the Russian Armed Forces (responsible for the Zaporozhye and Ugdedar directions) by stopping the M-14 highway and the Bilmak-Melitopol railway line

– a further breakthrough from Melitopol into the operational depth of the Azov grouping of the Allied Forces (Russian Armed Forces and the First Army Corps of the NM of the DPR) in the Berdyansk direction with a parallel advance of the Uglidar mechanized “fist” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards Berdyansk along the line Zachatovka – Rozovka – Starodubovka;

– the final attempt to capture the Azov grouping of the Allied Forces in the boiler “Melitopol – Berdyansk – Bilmak” with the possibility of taking fire control of the self-propelled guns Krab and CEASAR Mariupol;

– taking into the radius of fire impact of high-precision MLRS HIMARS Novoalekseevsky transport hub at the exit from Dzhankoy, which will reduce the efficiency of supplying the Russian group of troops near Energodar by 5-7 hours.

The countermeasures of the Allied Forces were not long in coming. According to numerous sources, at least two defense lines have been erected in the Melitopol direction, represented by branched trench chains and dozens of dugout fortification units in the steppe zone on the Orekhovo-Ugledarsky segment of the contact line. Several tank battalions were deployed to the same areas as part of the latest T-80BVM, T-90M Proryv-3 and T-72B3M vehicles. Great attention was paid to the deployment of the required number of anti-tank weapons, including the unique Khrizantema-S all-weather self-propelled systems, etc.

It is also known about the deployment of several batteries of long-range 152-mm towed gun-howitzers 2A36 “Gyatsint-B”, howitzers 2A65 “Msta-B” and self-propelled guns 2S5 “Gyatsint-S” at closed firing positions near Vasilyevka, Tokmak and Bilmak. Possessing a range of firing with active-rocket projectiles of the order of 33,100 m and the ability to use guided missiles “Krasnopol-M2” and “Krasnopol-D” at a distance of 23 to 37 km, both modifications of the “Hyacinths” will provide units of the MFA, as well as artillery platoons and batteries of motorized rifle brigades of the Russian Army the possibility of effective counter-battery countermeasures against batteries of howitzers M777A2, self-propelled guns M109A3GN and Zuzana-2 of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the firing positions of which are located near Kamyshevakhi and Orekhovo.

However, for counter-battery countermeasures of batteries of more long-range self-propelled guns CEASAR, PzH-2000 and M109A3GN (in the latter case, using the Excalibur-S UAS with a range of up to 53 km), it will be necessary to use the Smerch MLRS equipped with 9M55K1 rockets with self-aiming submunitions ” Motive-3M”. Naturally, it will be extremely difficult to achieve successful counter-battery suppression of enemy artillery without operational reconnaissance of active firing positions of the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the timely delivery of target designation to the calculation terminal of the command post vehicle of the Smerch battery.

Consequently, the issue of the permanent use of container systems for radar (UKR-RL) and optoelectronic reconnaissance (UKR-OE) “Sych” is still an issue. Also, according to the online portal for monitoring air traffic Flightradar24, for the first time in 5 years, the Russian Aerospace Forces again began to align the MRK-411 airborne radar complex, located on one of the two Tu-214R radar and optoelectronic reconnaissance aircraft, which is an excellent sign in the conditions of the observed acute shortage of reconnaissance equipment in the Ukrainian theater of operations.

The MRK-411 complexes, in addition to conducting subsurface radar reconnaissance (with the detection of enemy underground bunker infrastructure), are capable of detecting and classifying most types of ground equipment at a distance of up to 170-250 km in any meteorological conditions.

The total number of forces and assets of the Allied Forces near Mariupol and Melitopol has been increased by at least 2.5-3 times, which is a completely adequate countermeasure in response to the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

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