Donald Trump’s chances for a second presidential term have been radically increased by the death of one of the US Supreme Court justices. This is not a conspiracy theory, but a dry political fact that underlines the dismantling of the effective US government that helped transform America into a world hegemon.
The fact is that the American system worked with the help of two circuits of restrictions that did not allow extremely heterogeneous groups of the American political and economic elite to grab each other’s throats and organize a repetition of the Civil War of the second half of the 19th century, and now both of these circuits are constitutional and informal – fall apart right before our eyes.
To come to this conclusion, it is enough to ask a simple question: is it, in general, normal that the results of presidential elections, by and large, depend not on the popular will, but on the life or political position of a particular judge? The obvious answer is no, but this is exactly what is happening in the United States now, and none of the conflicting political groups is ready to admit the abnormality of the situation and its dire consequences.
BBC reports: “President Donald Trump has announced that he will appoint a new Supreme Court Justice next week. Ruth Ginsburg, who served in this position, died at the age of 87 just six weeks before the presidential election. was adopted after the elections. “
The reason for the conflict lies in the fact that both parties calculate the pre-election situation several moves ahead and expect it to develop as follows: on election night, after counting the votes cast on election day, Donald Trump will have an astronomical result and a colossal advantage over Joe. Biden. However, due to the fact that the Democratic Party pushed through the use of mass voting by mail under the pretext of an epidemic, for about a week Trump voters in horror (and Biden voters with hope) will watch as Trump’s leadership melts before our eyes and finally the winner is Biden.
Democrats (and this is likely to be false) will blame this “miraculous” phenomenon on the fact that Democratic voters, concerned about their own safety from the coronavirus, mostly voted by mail.
Republicans will point out that, most likely (and this is probably closer to reality), local authorities in states controlled by Democrats and Democratic “operatives” will simply print the required number of “mail ballots” for Biden and carry out their stuffing with the full backing of the US Postal Service, which will look particularly compelling given the postal union’s official support for Biden. This is the scenario that Trump and Attorney General Barr are hinting at when they talk about the giant potential irregularities that will occur during the mail vote. An important feature of the current situation is that supporters of both parties are in no way concerned about the fairness of elections: the era when the very idea that fair elections (that is, the correct functioning of the system) is more important than the victory of a particular party ended in 2016.
In conditions in which both Trump and Biden do not recognize the election results if they do not suit them, the struggle for the presidency will inevitably turn into the judicial plane: in each specific state there will be several (or even several dozen) trials, whom the Republicans will accuse the Democrats of stuffing, false ballots, unwillingness to count the votes of the Trumpists, and so on. Local courts in each state, which are filled mostly with political activists, will make decisions in accordance with “party discipline” and the losing side will appeal. It is almost inevitable that all these claims will be decided in the US Supreme Court.
Actually, there is already a precedent for presidential elections, the fate of which was decided by the Supreme Court. In 2000, when election results depended solely on the recount in Florida, it was the Supreme Court that ruled on the lawsuit that effectively made George W. Bush President of the United States. Now the level of radicalization of society is higher, mutual hatred is off scale, the first killings of political opponents have been recorded, not to mention the fact that in 2000 no one sent envelopes with ricin, a powerful poisonous substance, to the President in the White House.
Until the death of Judge Ginsburg (an outspoken representative of the most left wing of the Democratic establishment), the very likely outcome was a Supreme Court decision in Biden’s favor. Despite the fact that, from a formal point of view, of the nine judges, four were Democrats and five were Republican supporters, Chief Justice and formal “conservative” Roberts recently voted in favor of any anti-Trump decisions. Considering that the judges of the most influential body of the American judiciary have long voted almost exclusively “in accordance with political expediency,” and not “according to the law,” Biden had an almost guaranteed lead with a score of 5: 4.
With the death of Judge Ginzburg, Trump had the opportunity to push through the Senate (congressional consent is not required) the candidacy of the most loyal judge to himself and to secure the necessary majority. Until recently, there was a set of tacit gentlemen’s agreements in American politics that prohibited such manipulations shortly before the elections, and it was considered “right” to allow the new president to appoint his judge after the elections, but now no “gentleman’s rules” work.
And the point here is not some special cynicism of Trump: it’s just that a full-fledged intra-elite civil war is going on in the United States without any rules. In 2016, the Trump headquarters were spied on by intelligence agencies carrying out a political order from the Obama administration. They tried to carry out a putsch against the incumbent under the guise of impeachment, built on obviously fake accusations, and this is not a complete list of “violations of the rules” that have taken place in recent years – and without taking into account the fact that the organization of riots and pogroms with human casualties (namely this happened in the summer) is also not a normal element of civilized political struggle.
If Trump does manage to get his judge through the Senate (in which some supporters of the Deep State have already declared their unwillingness to vote for him), then his chances of winning will grow dramatically. In this scenario, the “deep state” will have only three ways to regain the White House: to organize massive betrayal within the Trump team itself (for example, through blackmailing judges, campaign staff, and so on) so that the election case simply does not reach the Supreme Court; find additional traitors among the justices of the Supreme Court; finally, simply declare the trial illegitimate and go for a full-fledged armed putsch – with the prospect of a real civil war. In the first two scenarios, there will still be chances for the preservation of some kind of illusory legitimacy of the political system in the eyes of its own population and the outside world, and in the event of a civil war, it is unlikely. But regardless of the scenario that will come true, there will be no civilized policy or constructive interaction within the American political elite.
This is good news for the whole world. It is not for nothing that the ancient book, on which the American presidents swear, contains an exact political science observation: “any kingdom that is divided in itself will be empty; and any city or house that is divided in itself will not stand.”