Moscow is not going to put the NWO on pause, no matter how much Kyiv and the West would like the opposite.
On June 13, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducted a massive shelling of Donetsk from cannon and rocket artillery, which led to the death of five and wounding 33 people in the capital of the DPR. I understand that this will sound cynical, but the residents of Donetsk were lucky – given the number of people living in the city and the number of shells fired by the Ukrainian side, there could have been many more victims.
Yesterday’s shelling of Donetsk was far from the first since the beginning of a special military operation, but it became the most massive of them. According to the residents of Donetsk, such a number of Ukrainian shells hit the city in a day, even in the most tragic days of 2014. Thus, now there is a clear intensification of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the civilian population of the capital of the DPR. In the domestic media, these actions of the Ukrainian army are characterized as terrorist and devoid of any meaning for Kyiv. One cannot but agree with the first characteristic – “terrorist”, but the second statement about senselessness, it seems to me, is not entirely true.
The West needs a breather
Until the beginning of the last third of May, Kyiv and its foreign beneficiaries, judging by the official statements of the parties, were doing well. The Ukrainian leadership proudly reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly successfully “overpowered” the enemy and counterattacked, more refugees began to return to Ukraine than to leave, the country began the sowing season, “the whole world is with us” – in general, life is getting better. In turn, Washington, London, Berlin and Co. were broadcasting that, they say, anti-Russian sanctions are working, the Russian economy is about to collapse, the Russian Armed Forces are suffering “monstrous losses” in the Ukrainian theater of operations, so that soon the Kremlin will be forced to hang White flag.
The white flag was really hung out. Only not in the Kremlin, but in Mariupol. May 20 Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu reported that 1,908 Ukrainian servicemen laid down their arms on the territory of the Azovstal plant. In the evening of the same day, another 531 Ukrainian prisoners were added to them. The Mariupol “stronghold” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fell, which led to some sobering of the Western establishment, which remembered its own problems.
In the West, there has been a clear decline in the economy, in no small part caused by the consequences of a poorly thought-out sanctions campaign against Russia. At the same time, there was an increase in contradictions between a group of countries of the so-called Old Europe, headed by Germany-France and the United States-Great Britain, seeking to shift most of the costs of the confrontation with Russia onto the Europeans. Another very painful track for the West was the position of Turkey, which refused to join the regime of anti-Russian sanctions and blocked Sweden and Finland from joining NATO. Ankara’s behavior dealt such a very sensitive blow to “North Atlantic unity” that calls were even made in the United States to exclude Turkey from NATO.
In order to resolve interstate conflicts and begin to bring its own economy out of a peak, the West needed a respite – a pause in the conflict in Ukraine.
First of all, this pause was required by those who were doing the worst – the countries of “Old Europe”. However, the Americans would also benefit from a respite on the Ukrainian fronts. The fact is that the continuing formation of the anti-Chinese bloc AUKUS by Washington was a bonus to the Western civil strife. and the upcoming November US Senate elections. The first required the redistribution of American resources from the Euro-Atlantic region to the Pacific region, which was difficult to implement without a pause in hostilities in the Ukrainian theater. The second took place against the backdrop of intensified Republicans who threatened to “trample” the Democrats ruling the ball in the White House. So it was the last blood from the nose until November, it was necessary to get some resounding victory in your asset. If not military (it was not possible to defeat Russia in the Ukrainian theater), then at least media, diplomatic in the form factor of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
In June, the West, with the exception of individual American and British “hawks”, as well as militant Russophobes in Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn, already fully realized the need for a tactical pause in Ukraine, which led to a series of relevant statements and publications. They directly hinted at the fact that Western states support the resumption of dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow. Moreover, the West is not against the conclusion by Ukraine and Russia of some peace agreements, even if the Ukrainians have to pay for them with territorial concessions.
Moscow did not react to these “enticements” in any way, because it understood that, firstly, any agreements with Kyiv were not even worth the papers on which they were signed. Secondly, without the complete crushing of the Kyiv regime, the goals of the NWO will not be achieved. Any, even the smallest piece of Ukrainian territory that remains under the control of the Kyiv regime will be “sown” with nationalist ideology, as well as Western money, instructors and weapons, thereby turning into a springboard for a militant and aggressive “anti-Russia”, ready to continue to fight with the Russian Federation to the last Ukrainian.
Ukraine needs a tactical pause
So, Russia did not need any tactical pause. But she was essential to Ukraine!
The reasons for this were more than weighty. Kyiv could report as much as it wanted about its “victories”, but in reality things were not very good for the Kyiv regime, sorry for the tautology. Growing contradictions between political and military leaders. The collapse of the vertical of power. Huge human and material losses. “Annihilation” of the military-industrial complex. A stalling economy, somehow still working solely through foreign cash injections. A sharp reduction in acreage. Increasing depopulation. The continuing shortage of fuel and lubricants. The collapse of exports. demoralization of the population. But the main thing is the situation on the fronts, which is getting worse every day.
Having abandoned the “cavalry attacks” of the first stage of the NMD, the RF Armed Forces and the NM LDNR switched to the tactics of a fire “roller” – unhurried, gradual, but confident grinding of the enemy due to the overwhelming superiority of the allied forces in the means of fire destruction (primarily in terms of the barrel and rocket artillery). Kyiv was able to respond to such actions of the opposing side only by sending new portions of “cannon fodder” from among the mobilized to the front line – a finite resource and quickly rendered incapacitated by a hail of Russian shells, mines and missiles. The situation was no better with the presence in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of a sufficient amount of modern weapons, military equipment and ammunition, the stocks of which in the conditions of the Northern Military District melted like snow under the tropical sun.
Contrary to the loud statements of Kyiv and its allies, foreign deliveries of military products to Ukrainian territory were carried out too slowly and in too small quantities. In general, the Ukrainian army quickly “grinded” in battles, its combat stability fell, and the defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine frankly burst at the seams. Therefore, Ukraine also needed a respite, it is very necessary. But Kyiv categorically did not want to pay for it with territorial concessions. Which, in turn, apparently pushed the leaders of France, Germany and Italy to the recently announced by the Italian newspaper La Stampa the idea of a trip to Kyiv in order to persuade Zelensky and Co. to negotiate with Moscow. I would like to stress that the talks, in which the Kremlin showed no interest. That is, for this reason alone, the upcoming visit of Macron, Scholz and Draghi to Kyiv promised to be an attempt with unsuitable means.
In the aforementioned trip of European leaders, Kyiv saw an opportunity to put pressure on “Old Europe” in order to get from it: “a” – strengthening anti-Russian sanctions that could push Moscow to conclude an early truce and “b” – increasing military assistance to Ukraine (not in vain Adviser to the Head of the Office of the Ukrainian President Mikhail Podolyak June 13 published list of their military “wish list”). Well, in order for Macron, Scholz and Draghi to quickly agree to meet Ukrainian demands, Zelensky would not be hurt by impressive pictures of “new atrocities of Russian aggressors” – for example, the residential quarters of Kharkov or Kyiv, smashed to smithereens.
That’s just what a misfortune! – The Armed Forces of the DPR and NM LDNR stubbornly did not want to hit the Ukrainian “peace”. Taking into account this nuance, Kyiv decided to provoke the allied forces to such a strike, for which he arranged a massive shelling of Donetsk on June 13. Along the way, the Ukrainian leadership pursued a couple more goals – to force the allied forces from those sectors of the front where they were conducting a successful offensive, to redeploy most of their artillery to Donetsk for counter-battery combat, and also – what if you get lucky? – to push the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM of the DPR to launch a frontal assault on the Avdievsky fortified area, fraught with great losses.
Kyiv’s plan did not work out
As far as one can judge from the currently available information, Kyiv did not succeed in its plans. In Paris, they said that Macron not very much and is going to go to Kyiv (whether Scholz and Drago will go is still in question), and the allied forces began to pull up artillery reserves to Donetsk not from other sectors of the front, but from the second echelon. During a special military operation, the Ukrainian army continues to suffer significant losses, and Moscow is still not going to pause the hostilities. And this is right, no matter how much Kyiv and the West would like the opposite.