Analyst Bagmanov spoke about the prices of oil and gold, revealing the reasons for the stability of the ruble

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Federal news agency
Federal news agency

Against the backdrop of a recession in the United States, oil and gold prices are steadily going up, and the ruble is strengthening along with them. About why the Russian currency demonstrates confident stability, said the analyst of the publication “Economy Today” Alexander Bagmanov.

Oil prices closed yesterday with a confident increase, adding more than 2% to the level of 96 dollars 50 cents for Brent crude. Now there is a slight decline to about $95.50 per barrel. Actually, this happened after last week’s fall amid fears of lower demand and a recession in the US, as well as weak manufacturing data from China.

Also last week, oil prices received a positive impetus, the expert states. The publication of rather optimistic data on employment in the US had an effect, and oil prices were able to recover somewhat. Nevertheless, the fear of a recession and not yet very strong demand in China continues to put pressure on oil, although by the end of July it was noted that China still began to gradually increase oil imports.

According to the results of July, this figure increased compared to June and amounted to 8.8 million barrels per day. Negative today brought reports that yesterday the European Union presented the final text of the document on the resumption of the nuclear deal between Iran and the United States. Its approval between representatives of these countries is expected.

“As market participants have already calculated, if it is resumed, Iran can add from one to one and a half million barrels per day to the market, although this will not be done all at once, but gradually. But, nevertheless, it will increase the offer,” the analyst predicts.

In addition, the American Goldman Sachs Bank expects that, despite the fall at the end of the year, the price will be higher – about $120 per barrel.

“I attribute this to the fact that the deficit in the oil market will continue until the end of the year. So far, oil remains in the range of up to 90 to 100 dollars per barrel,” sums up Alexander Bagmanov.

According to him, today the focus will be on data on stocks from the American Petroleum Institute. Also this week, important reports from OPEC and the US Department of Energy will be published.

According to the results of yesterday, gold showed an increase of 0.8% and is now also rising slightly to the level of 1793. Gold was supported by the downward dynamics of the yield of US government bonds, which fell below 2.8%, and the dollar index (DXY) corrected from the level of 106, 7 to the level of 106 points. This supported gold, as did the tension that now lingers around Taiwan.

“The recession in the US economy, the risk of a global recession is also now supporting gold as the main defensive asset,” the economist notes. “At the same time, after the publication of fresh data on the labor market on Friday, fears have increased that the Fed may raise rates in September.”

The focus is on inflation data, which will be published tomorrow. According to Bagmanov, it will decrease from 9.1 to 8.7% in annual terms. This is due to the fact that gasoline prices in the US have fallen from a peak of $5 to $4, which should ease inflationary pressures.

The ruble demonstrates stability against the dollar. Some support is provided by oil prices. Plus, the agreements between the presidents of Russia and Turkey on partially paying for gas supplied to this country in rubles. Support for our currency is given by the processes that are observed in the securities market. The ruble remains in the range of 55-60 rubles per dollar.

Earlier, analyst Bagmanov spoke about the reasons for the decline in oil prices.

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