4 Best Bets for Lakers vs. Kings, Warriors vs. Suns, and More NBA Betting Odds & Picks

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On Tuesday night, the NBA season continues with five games, and our Action Network NBA crew offers four top bets, including three total bets on the two nationally televised games on TNT.

Joe Dellera and Raheem Palmer have broken down two wagers for the Knicks and Nets’ crosstown game. After a triple-overtime game on Friday, Kenny Ducey has the best bet on the Lakers’ rematch with the Kings. Finally, Matt Moore has a wager on the Western Conference frontrunners clashing for the first time this season as the Warriors and Suns meet.

Take a look at their top picks below.

New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets

PickPatty Mills over 12.5 points, 15+, 20+
BookFanDuel
Tipoff7:30 p.m. ET
TVTNT

I don’t believe the books have been updated to reflect this. Although his usage is considerably lesser than that of Kevin Durant and James Harden, he is the team’s clear third-scoring option. Mills has taken 78.8 percent of his shots from three-point range during his last seven games, thanks to their gravity.

According to NBA.com’s tracking data, 77.6 percent of his Field Goal attempts are classified as Open or Wide Open. This is a perfect location for Mills because the Knicks allow opponents to take 40.6 percent of their shots from 3-point range (third-most), and they make 34.9 percent of those attempts (league-average).

To Mills’ point props, I’ll take a two-tiered approach. I’ll be taking over 12.5, a number he’s cleared in five of his last seven games. I’ll also take 15+ (+138), a figure he’s gotten 5 out of 7 times. In addition, I’ll sprinkle 20+ (+510), which he cleared in 4/7. I’d divide my bet into three tiers: 50%, 35%, and 15% of a Unit.

New York Knicks vs. Brooklyn Nets

PickOver 216
BookFanDuel
Tipoff7:30 p.m. ET
TVTNT

Raheem Palmer: I’m Raheem Palmer, and I’m My model gives this game a score of 214, but I’m not betting on the under. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Brooklyn Nets rank 10th in Defensive Rating, allowing 106.5 points in non-garbage-time minutes. However, because they’ve faced the 26th-ranked schedule of opposing offenses, most of that is deceiving.

The New York Knicks have made lineup changes, eliminating Kemba Walker from the lineup entirely after he averaged only 11.7 points on 42.9 percent shooting. The Knicks were averaging 105.1 points per 100 possessions with Walker on the court, compared to 113 points per 100 with him off the court, so replacing him from the starting lineup for Alec Burks could help their offensive.

Although it will assist their defense, the Knicks aren’t slowing down Kevin Durant, James Harden, and the Nets offense, which is averaging 111.3 points per 100 possessions and ranks 10th in offensive rating.

On the perimeter, the Knicks rank 28th in opponent three-point frequency (40.6 percent) and 17th in opponent three-point field goal percentage (34.9 percent ). Except for the rim, where the Knicks are first in field goal percentage, the Nets are first in 3-point field goal percentage (38.5) and top six in shooting percentage from every region of the floor (57.2 percent ).

Regardless, the Nets should have no trouble scoring in this game. Given the Nets’ troubles in transition, the Knicks should have some success here as well. Here, I’ll take the over at 216 and fade the early underdog.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings

PickLakers -3.5 (-110)
BookBetMGM
Tipoff10:00 p.m. ET
TVNBA League Pass

Kenny Ducey: I’m as big a Lakers fan as you’ll find, but there has to be a line drawn someplace. That would be in Sacramento, where Los Angeles had only 3.5 points to offer.

In the four games since firing Luke Walton on Nov. 21, the Kings haven’t changed a thing, ranking 25th in Defensive Efficiency. Their offense has stayed middling, and their rebounding has remained poor.

This is ideal for the Lakers, who can’t shoot the three and must rely on shots from LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook from inside the arc. Westbrook is also less of a burden on defense against a club that struggles to shoot the ball, with the Kings ranking 25th in 3-point shooting.

Los Angeles is the superior club, and while Davis has struggled this season, he gets an extremely easy matchup down low and on the glass that he can easily exploit. Los Angeles should appear like a real team for once, thanks to the Kings’ lack of effort and skill on defense. Play for a total of 4.5 points.

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns

PickUnder 222.5
BookBetRivers
Tipoff10:00 p.m. ET
TVTNT

Matt Moore (Matt): This season, the Suns are 12-8 overall and 8-2 in their past ten games. I don’t usually try to get in front of a fast train. The Suns, on the other hand, stand out in terms of who they’ve faced. According to DunksAndThrees.com, they have the 28th best offensive strength of schedule, which means they’ve played largely inferior defensive opponents.

The Suns’ offense has been on a tear, but one stumbling block has been switching defenses. According to Second Spectrum, Phoenix’s offensive efficiency drops from 0.998 points per possession versus typical drop defense to 0.977 points per possession against switches, which is essentially what the Warriors do. This is also a carryover from the previous season.

With Deandre Ayton’s size and Chris Paul’s shotmaking, the Suns can offset the switch, but those are both worse efficiency results.

On the other hand, the Warriors have struggled against drop coverage, which is primarily used by the Suns. Most teams won’t run it because they’re afraid of Steph Curry scoring 50 points, but the Suns’ guards have the physicality to compete, and Deandre Ayton can step up to the battle. The Warriors, like most teams, struggle with switching and are exposed to it more frequently.

Both of these clubs don’t allow a lot of fastbreak points. According to Synergy Sports, the Suns are second in transition defense, while the Warriors are third.

I’ve got it modeled closer to 210 than 220, and I’d go with 220.5.

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